Republican Power and Redistricting

After carefully following the 2010 Congressional Election of the Third District of New Jersey for a semester and blogging about everything from debates between the candidates to the back and forth campaign attack ads released by the candidates, I only have one final topic to address—the re-drawing of congressional district lines. It is no secret that the Republicans have come into power again after their takeover in the 2010 Congressional Election wins, and it is clear that the Republican Party will have a significant influence in the redistricting process. According to an article from ABC World News, Jeff Reichert states that redistricting “is really about the power and who has it—and the lengths that they’re willing to go to keep people from getting it…aside from the fraud, this is the best way to control elections that you can.” The article continues to talk about the dangers of redistricting that have developed as the process has now become a way for lawmakers to map districts “according to any specifications they wish.”

It is evident that the G.O.P control has strengthened because of the 2010 election results; however, Census projections have measured that the state of New Jersey is expected to lose one of its 13 House seats. The process for redistricting in New Jersey is different from that of other states in that state legislatures and governors, usually from the same party, do not draw the maps. Instead, New Jersey follows a “system of drawing districts through a bipartisan commission with a neutral tie-breaker recognizes the inherently partisan nature of redistricting in a two-party system while giving the final say to the public interest by giving the tie-breaking vote on the final plan to a public member…” Redistricting is said to be the ultimate political process as it determines whether political careers ultimately continue or end. Given this, we can only wait to see how Jon Runyan, a first-timer in politics, stands against the redistricting process that is to come. While all this is happening, the citizens of New Jersey (me included) are all holding their breath, hoping for the change that they need to finally come. 

Republican Candidate Runyan and his Victory Affecting the Republican Controlled Congress

Joining the team of newly elected Republicans, Runyan, who stands at 6 foot 7, joked around saying, “I'll probably be the largest human being on The Hill…But we're going to take that largeness and use it to shrink the size of government." Former Democratic state legislator John Adler offered to help Runyan transition into office, stating that if Runyan succeeds, the third district of New Jersey ultimately succeeds. Adler’s loss to Runyan has been noted as self-inflicted from his non-stop attacks on Runyan to his involvement in the planting of the fake tea party candidate.

According to the Washington Post, Runyan was scheduled to be in D.C. November 15^th, 2010 for his Capitol Hill orientation. According to the Philadelphia Inquirer, voters had voted for against the Republicans the past two years in hopes of change promised by candidates such as Obama and Christie. However, clearly the voters have not been pleased with what the elected leaders have been doing in office. The Republicans, now taking a slight majority in the House of Representatives, work to change what has been under the Democratic reign. Chris Russell, a spokesperson for the Runyan campaign, stated that Jon Runyan is the direction that voters are looking for. “He’s a political outsider with an eight-point plan to cut taxes and create jobs. And Runyan’s reform agenda includes congressional term limits and a balanced budget amendment.” Runyan, a new face in politics, must work to not only prove to voters that he was the right choice, but also to prove to other state legislators that he has what it takes to aid the Republican controlled Congress in achieving their goals. 

Runyan Elected to Congress in the 3rd District of New Jersey!

The long awaited Election Day has finally given us the results we have been waiting for: Jon Runyan is elected to Congress! According to South Jersey Local News, the newcomer Republican took back a historically Republican seat by a vote count of 106,175 to 100,169.

The battle in the 3^rd district of New Jersey was said to be the “hardest fought, most expensive and most bitter House race” by the Philadelphia Inquirer. In the final week before the election, Adler and the Democrats were reported to have spent $830,000 on television ads in the expensive New York and Philadelphia area and another $700,000 on attack ads on Runyan in Philadelphia television. The question that is on everyone’s mind is how did newcomer Runyan unseat incumbent Adler? The Burlington County Times lists several reasons from the amount of help Runyan received from Republican organizations in the district, the National Republican Congressional Committee, and support from Governor Chris Christie. The Burlington County Times also stated that Runyan was said to have worked harder than ever as a candidate against Adler, as he had to overcome the significant financial gap between the parties. “Entering the election, Adler had raised more than $3 million in campaign funds compared with Runyan's approximately $1 million.”

Personally, I believe that Runyan deserves the win in this district because of his unfailing determination as a new political candidate and his focus on more than just attack ads when compared with Adler. The back-and-forth attacks and counterattacks between the candidates was said to have confused and annoyed voters; however, it seems that Runyan’s hard work has finally paid off as he won not only the seat, but also voter’s hearts. 

Runyan Takes a Slight Lead in the Polls, But Will He Steal the Victory from Adler?

This will be my last blog before Election Day, and it has been said that the 2010 Congressional race between Adler and Runyan has become the most competitive political race in the state of New Jersey. In a debate held October 19^th, the two candidates clashed over...the economy? This is one of the few debates where Adler and Runyan did not spend the most of their time bashing each other for their nasty campaign ads, although they did spend some time discussing them. Instead, both candidates spent most of their time arguing about their positions on the stimulus package, which Adler favors and Runyan is against. Adler says that the package is “a way to stop this freefall of the economy,” while Runyan favors keeping and extending the Bush tax cuts. Runyan and Adler also talked about other major topics such as healthcare reform and social security. 

As Election Day is getting closer, both candidates are finally starting to get down to business and address issues the voters really care about. Jon Runyan, a former Eagles offensive lineman, came into the election with no prior political experience, but has managed to take the lead against the “freshman Democrat,” John Adler. According to projected election results by the New York Times, which compares chances for both candidates from February 1st, 2010 until October 25th, 2010, Adler began the election in the lead with approximately 51.6% to Runyan’s 46%; however, as of October 25^th, Runyan now takes a slight advantage over Adler with results showing 48.6% for Runyan and 48% for Adler. Although Runyan has only a .6% lead over Adler, these results clearly indicate that the citizens of the 3^rd District of New Jersey are unsure about Adler and may be ready for a new voice of representation. As a resident of New Jersey, I am very excited to steal the voters hearts and see who comes out on top!

"Fake Tea Party Candidates, Late Property Tax Payments, and Donkeys"

As Midterm Elections are approaching, the race between Adler and Runyan is everything but boring. Just last week, the Republicans of the Third District accused the Adler campaign of planting DeStefano, the Tea Party candidate, in the race in order to siphon off votes from Runyan. Adler denied any connection to this, saying "I was very clear about this issue when I first heard about it: I want to have nothing to do with it. I told my people to have nothing to do with it. As far as I know, we have nothing to do with it." Runyan is doubtful of Adler’s denial to the matter, and has called Adler “distasteful and unethical.” This is only the most recent of the campaign issues between the two candidates. Throughout the campaign, Adler and Runyan haven’t spent their time and finances on promoting real issues, such as healthcare, unemployment, drilling for oil, etc; instead, the issues they have been focusing on include “fake tea party candidates, late property tax payments, and donkeys.”

The Third District of New Jersey is where the NJ Republican’s have the best shot at defeating a Democrat incumbent, despite the fact that Adler has raised a substantial amount more compared to Runyan. Reports show that Adler raised $3.03 million to Runyan’s $1.12 million since the start of the election cycle in January 2009. From July 1^st to September 30^th, records show Adler raising $556,313 compared to Runyan’s $465,585. However, Runyan is not worried about Adler’s monetary advantage, and he clearly does not need to be given his remarkable standing in the polls. Also, since the allegations on Adler for rigging the Tea Party candidate, Runyan has seen a spike in support from both Republicans and the Tea Party movement. With Election Day closing in, it will be interesting to see if Adler can pull a victory over Runyan given the statistics seen so far throughout the race. 

Here is a video of the press conference where the Tea Party scam accusations took place, held October 11^th.

"Freshman Democrat" Plants Tea Party Candidate

From the start of my blog, I have focused on the two primary candidates of the third congressional district of New Jersey as that is where the real political battles have been taking place. The two primary candidates, Adler and Runyan, have yet to bore voters with their constant attacks and counterattacks on each other. Runyan, a first time candidate in politics, has surprisingly done well against his opponent Adler, the incumbent candidate in this race. For the most part, incumbents are said to have a supposed advantage, especially over first-timers, as they have already established (or should have already established) voter support and crucial campaigning experience. However, this does not seem to be the case for Adler, who is still seen as a “freshman democrat” despite his political experience. Although the negative campaigning that opponent Runyan has been engaging in has negatively reflected on his character (in relation to politics), Adler seems to have definitely suffered in the polls from these attacks. Adler still takes the lead in polls by an insignificant margin, but Runyan has clearly proven disbelievers wrong about his strength in this race.

This past week, the race got even more dramatic for Adler, as the involvement of the tea party candidate is accused of being a scam! Anonymous Democratic operatives confirmed the fact that Peter DeStefano, the tea party candidate for this district, was put on the ballot by Democrats. In a debate held on Monday October 11^th, Runyan accused Adler of “planting” the tea party candidate in the race in order to “siphon off conservative votes,” and asked Adler to explain the Democratic Party’s connection to this matter. Adler avoided the question, changed the subject, and fired a remark at Runyan, saying that they should be discussing matters of unemployment. Adler has denied any involvement in this matter by him or his party.

With less than a month until Election Day, the candidates better believe that their every move will be watched even more closely than it has been, and that any mix ups will definitely impact the results of this race (as seen with Adler’s current position in the race). Many voters and analysts have called this race a draw. To me, that is like saying this race was a win for Runyan. Adler has not retained voter support within the district and he definitely needs to step up his game if he expects to win against opponent Runyan. 

Candidates of the 3rd District: "We Have a Situation!"

A candidate’s campaign strategy is a key aspect in determining the result of any election. Negative campaigning is an approach to politics in which candidates try to gain an advantage by emphasizing their positive attributes while pointing out the flaws of their running mates. John Adler and Jon Runyan’s interesting campaign strategies have been surprisingly similar, in that they have both been engaging in negative campaigning through their nonstop attacks on each other.

As I talked about in previous blogs, Adler and Runyan have been using their finances to “campaign” through their ads attacking the other candidate, instead of spending their time and money addressing issues that voters care about, such as jobs or healthcare. In a poll taken by Richard Stockton College of 1,200 likely voters in South Jersey, 66% of voters chose the economy/jobs as the biggest issue they’re facing, while 27% of voters chose healthcare.  According to Rob Spahr of the Press of Atlantic City, “The personal attacks, accusations and stunts pulled by the candidates have turned the 3rd District race for House of Representatives into a political version of ‘Jersey Shore.’” I have to agree with Spahr: the candidates should be focusing their time and attention towards more important matters at hand in order to try and gain more support from voters, instead of resorting to mudslinging each other to try and gain an advantage that way. Here is a video of Adler and Runyan addressing issues they have with each other during a meeting.

At this point of the election, voters within the third district of New Jersey are uncertain of whether they want a candidate who can bring the much needed change or whether they want someone who has the experience to get things done. Adler and Runyan have turned this congressional race into a battle based solely on attacks and counterattacks. Is the mudslinging really helping any candidate gain a substantial advantage? Or are the candidates' investment in negative campaigning going to hurt them in the end? With the direction Adler and Runyan are heading in now with their negative campaign tactics, voters will need to think twice about who they ultimately want to represent them. 

Runyan closing in on Adler: Because of his politics or help from Super PACs?

Super “PACs” are campaign groups who are known for their ability to spend millions of dollars in elections, without revealing the source of their funding, in order to influence the outcome of the election and oppose those who do not agree with their beliefs or views. The non-profit American-Future Fund (AFF), one of many super PACs, is known for their numerous commercials and television ads attacking Democrats in different congressional races. With $25 million left to spend before Election Day, the AFF has chosen to intervene in the race between John Adler and Jon Runyan because of their different views on major issues such as healthcare, spending, and how to tackle the economy and the issue of unemployment.

According to an article by Cynthia Burton of the Philadelphia Inquirer,

“Corporations, unions, and other special-interest groups may now spend unlimited amounts on political ads. They can contribute to certain types of nonprofits, such as the AFF, without fear of being unmasked. Republicans in the Senate blocked a bill Thursday that would have required the disclosure of donors to independent expenditure groups.”

In terms of campaign spending, Adler has a recorded amount of money four times that of Runyan. Although the AFF has not publicly and exclusively taken Runyan’s side in the campaign, it is known that they have spent $170,000 in ads opposing Adler and they are far from finished. These ads portray Adler as “the liberal puppet of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi,” they accuse him of not being consistent with his plans for healthcare and the Obama plan.

Also, the blocked bill by the Senate ironically works in Runyan’s favor. Adler may never know who is funding the commercials or ads targeting his campaign and policies. Runyan’s campaign has not yet commented on any of the AFF’s ads against Adler, nor have they mentioned whether or not they believe donors to special interest groups or PACs should be revealed. Adler, however, has made his stance on the situation very clear. In a statement concerning the situation, Adler stated that “We cannot tolerate special interests flooding the airwaves with anonymous attack ads.” Personally, I agree with Adler. I believe that people within large campaign or interest groups, such as the AFF, who are able to greatly impact the election through their monetary involvement, should be revealed. 

In a poll taken this week, Adler finished with 42% to Runyan’s 39%, the margin of error being only plus or minus 4.9%! With a race this close, and special interest groups like the AFF getting involved, I am excited to see what each candidate brings to the table next!

Things get Heated Up in a Debate Between the Two Candidates!

On Monday September 13^th, 2010, rivals Adler and Runyan answered questions at a forum in Mount Laurel, NJ. Both candidates took turns answering questions from the government affairs committee and the audience. Obviously, the candidates did not agree on much and major differences were seen in each candidates stand on fixes for the economy and their ideals on healthcare.

According to the New York Times, in the past, the incumbent voting record has been against the Health Care Bill, and Adler once again, voted against it in this year’s election. Advocates from Adler’s campaign have not only accused Runyan of being vague in his plans for improving healthcare, but they have also accused him of planning to eliminate some of healthcare’s most vital programs.  Advocates from Adler’s campaign supported their argument by warning voters and senior citizens that Runyan’s campaign is being funded by party leaders who are in support of privatizing Social Security and Medicare. Adler said, "If you look at the consequence of his tax and spending policy and his affiliation with the people who are supporting his campaign, the inevitable consequence is harm to senior citizens in terms of Social Security and Medicare."

In his defense, on Tuesday September 14^th, 2010, Runyan held a press conference in Toms River, NJ to address the lies Adler published in a campaign mailer that accused Runyan of having plans to end Medicare and Social Security if elected to office. Runyan says, "These are programs we need and programs we have to preserve for the future, our future generations, and I've told (Adler) that, time and time again.” Runyan then went on to accuse Adler of resorting to “distasteful” campaign tactics by making personal attacks on him after having 22 years in public office.

Medicare and Social Security are two aspects of healthcare that greatly affect voters, more particularly senior citizens. As I mentioned in my last blog, political scientist Brigid Harrison from Montclair State University revealed that voters really need a candidate who can help them overcome their economic turmoil. I believe that the issue of healthcare will be a critical factor in impacting who will steal the lead in this political race, especially due to the force of the fallen economy on its citizens. 

The Candidates Are Already Playing Dirty

            Election Day is less than two months away and candidates John Adler and Jon Runyan are really heating up their battle for a seat in the House of Representatives. Currently, the House has 255 Democrats, 178 Republicans, and 2 vacancies. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report has deemed this district a leaning Democratic, implying that Adler has the advantage. The Republicans must obtain 38 seats in order to take over the House, and experts say the outcome for the Third District of New Jersey could make a critical difference in which political party comes out on top.
            In early 2010, Runyan was accused of taking advantage of a New Jersey property tax break by registering the 5 acres surrounding his house as farmland. Records show that he uses his "farmland" to graze donkeys and sell timber. This seems extremely ironic to me as Runyan is a Republican using the Democratic Party's animal symbol to evade his taxes. Adler's recent campaign brochure showed Runyan and his donkeys covering up his gated mansion, clearly attacking Runyan by labeling him as being a wealthy Republican who finds loopholes for a tax break.

Runyan retaliated with home mailings that showed a caricature of Adler with fire coming out of his rear that read "Liar, Liar, pants on fire."

             Although the battle for a seat in the House seems to have gotten pretty rough, analysts say that these attacks on each other's weaknesses probably will not sway voters. Political scientist Brigid Harrison from Montclair State University reveals what voters really want: a candidate that can help them wade through their economic turmoil. Being a resident in the state of New Jersey and a voter myself, I agree with this ideal. The current economy needs a candidate that can make a change. Even if it is not a big change, little steps will eventually help us out of this fallen economy.



Sources:

http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2010/01/ex-nfl_player_congressional_ca.html

http://www.philly.com/inquirer/front_page/20100910_In_3d_District__Adler_and_Runyan_firing_away_already.html

Introduction to New Jersey's 3rd Congressional District Election

For 123 years prior to Adler’s victory in 2008 the third district of New Jersey used to be a strictly Republican district. Democratic candidate John Adler and Republican candidate Jon Runyan are leading one of the most critical congressional district campaigns in this coming November 2010 election.  

Jon Runyan, a former American football offensive tackle, announced his plans to run for candidacy in November 2009 against John Adler for the third congressional district of New Jersey, and won the Republican nomination on June 8, 2010. As a former Philadelphia Eagle, Runyan holds a lot of fans votes in this southern New Jersey County. Runyan has introduced new political issues such as his vote against ObamaCare and more importantly, his anti-environmental stand for offshore drilling. Runyan believes that “safe” offshore drilling will ultimately help to create jobs, lower energy costs, and reduce our dependence on the Middle East for oil.

Running against Runyan, John Adler , the current congressman for the third district of New Jersey, is severely opposed to Runyan’s energy policy. Adler has sponsored New Jersey’s Clean Cars Act, American Clean Energy and Security Act, Global Warming Response Act, and he continues to be a defender for the environment. In his past two years in office, Adler has received a 93% voter rating from the League of Conservation Voters, proving that his stand for environmental safety is greatly supported by the general public.

This particular election caught my interest because of the extreme difference between the candidates, as well as the difference between their stand on many critical issues while trying to gain as much voter support as they can. As candidates for the third congressional district of New Jersey, the result of this election will significantly impact not only the district, but also representation of the entire state of New Jersey.           

Sources:

http://www.politickernj.com/alan-steinberg/41223/competitive-new-jersey-us-house-representatives-races

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/heather-taylormiesle/congressional-candidates_b_694690.html

http://adlerforcongress.com/node

http://runyanforcongress.com/