Runyan Takes a Slight Lead in the Polls, But Will He Steal the Victory from Adler?

This will be my last blog before Election Day, and it has been said that the 2010 Congressional race between Adler and Runyan has become the most competitive political race in the state of New Jersey. In a debate held October 19^th, the two candidates clashed over...the economy? This is one of the few debates where Adler and Runyan did not spend the most of their time bashing each other for their nasty campaign ads, although they did spend some time discussing them. Instead, both candidates spent most of their time arguing about their positions on the stimulus package, which Adler favors and Runyan is against. Adler says that the package is “a way to stop this freefall of the economy,” while Runyan favors keeping and extending the Bush tax cuts. Runyan and Adler also talked about other major topics such as healthcare reform and social security. 

As Election Day is getting closer, both candidates are finally starting to get down to business and address issues the voters really care about. Jon Runyan, a former Eagles offensive lineman, came into the election with no prior political experience, but has managed to take the lead against the “freshman Democrat,” John Adler. According to projected election results by the New York Times, which compares chances for both candidates from February 1st, 2010 until October 25th, 2010, Adler began the election in the lead with approximately 51.6% to Runyan’s 46%; however, as of October 25^th, Runyan now takes a slight advantage over Adler with results showing 48.6% for Runyan and 48% for Adler. Although Runyan has only a .6% lead over Adler, these results clearly indicate that the citizens of the 3^rd District of New Jersey are unsure about Adler and may be ready for a new voice of representation. As a resident of New Jersey, I am very excited to steal the voters hearts and see who comes out on top!

"Fake Tea Party Candidates, Late Property Tax Payments, and Donkeys"

As Midterm Elections are approaching, the race between Adler and Runyan is everything but boring. Just last week, the Republicans of the Third District accused the Adler campaign of planting DeStefano, the Tea Party candidate, in the race in order to siphon off votes from Runyan. Adler denied any connection to this, saying "I was very clear about this issue when I first heard about it: I want to have nothing to do with it. I told my people to have nothing to do with it. As far as I know, we have nothing to do with it." Runyan is doubtful of Adler’s denial to the matter, and has called Adler “distasteful and unethical.” This is only the most recent of the campaign issues between the two candidates. Throughout the campaign, Adler and Runyan haven’t spent their time and finances on promoting real issues, such as healthcare, unemployment, drilling for oil, etc; instead, the issues they have been focusing on include “fake tea party candidates, late property tax payments, and donkeys.”

The Third District of New Jersey is where the NJ Republican’s have the best shot at defeating a Democrat incumbent, despite the fact that Adler has raised a substantial amount more compared to Runyan. Reports show that Adler raised $3.03 million to Runyan’s $1.12 million since the start of the election cycle in January 2009. From July 1^st to September 30^th, records show Adler raising $556,313 compared to Runyan’s $465,585. However, Runyan is not worried about Adler’s monetary advantage, and he clearly does not need to be given his remarkable standing in the polls. Also, since the allegations on Adler for rigging the Tea Party candidate, Runyan has seen a spike in support from both Republicans and the Tea Party movement. With Election Day closing in, it will be interesting to see if Adler can pull a victory over Runyan given the statistics seen so far throughout the race. 

Here is a video of the press conference where the Tea Party scam accusations took place, held October 11^th.

"Freshman Democrat" Plants Tea Party Candidate

From the start of my blog, I have focused on the two primary candidates of the third congressional district of New Jersey as that is where the real political battles have been taking place. The two primary candidates, Adler and Runyan, have yet to bore voters with their constant attacks and counterattacks on each other. Runyan, a first time candidate in politics, has surprisingly done well against his opponent Adler, the incumbent candidate in this race. For the most part, incumbents are said to have a supposed advantage, especially over first-timers, as they have already established (or should have already established) voter support and crucial campaigning experience. However, this does not seem to be the case for Adler, who is still seen as a “freshman democrat” despite his political experience. Although the negative campaigning that opponent Runyan has been engaging in has negatively reflected on his character (in relation to politics), Adler seems to have definitely suffered in the polls from these attacks. Adler still takes the lead in polls by an insignificant margin, but Runyan has clearly proven disbelievers wrong about his strength in this race.

This past week, the race got even more dramatic for Adler, as the involvement of the tea party candidate is accused of being a scam! Anonymous Democratic operatives confirmed the fact that Peter DeStefano, the tea party candidate for this district, was put on the ballot by Democrats. In a debate held on Monday October 11^th, Runyan accused Adler of “planting” the tea party candidate in the race in order to “siphon off conservative votes,” and asked Adler to explain the Democratic Party’s connection to this matter. Adler avoided the question, changed the subject, and fired a remark at Runyan, saying that they should be discussing matters of unemployment. Adler has denied any involvement in this matter by him or his party.

With less than a month until Election Day, the candidates better believe that their every move will be watched even more closely than it has been, and that any mix ups will definitely impact the results of this race (as seen with Adler’s current position in the race). Many voters and analysts have called this race a draw. To me, that is like saying this race was a win for Runyan. Adler has not retained voter support within the district and he definitely needs to step up his game if he expects to win against opponent Runyan. 

Candidates of the 3rd District: "We Have a Situation!"

A candidate’s campaign strategy is a key aspect in determining the result of any election. Negative campaigning is an approach to politics in which candidates try to gain an advantage by emphasizing their positive attributes while pointing out the flaws of their running mates. John Adler and Jon Runyan’s interesting campaign strategies have been surprisingly similar, in that they have both been engaging in negative campaigning through their nonstop attacks on each other.

As I talked about in previous blogs, Adler and Runyan have been using their finances to “campaign” through their ads attacking the other candidate, instead of spending their time and money addressing issues that voters care about, such as jobs or healthcare. In a poll taken by Richard Stockton College of 1,200 likely voters in South Jersey, 66% of voters chose the economy/jobs as the biggest issue they’re facing, while 27% of voters chose healthcare.  According to Rob Spahr of the Press of Atlantic City, “The personal attacks, accusations and stunts pulled by the candidates have turned the 3rd District race for House of Representatives into a political version of ‘Jersey Shore.’” I have to agree with Spahr: the candidates should be focusing their time and attention towards more important matters at hand in order to try and gain more support from voters, instead of resorting to mudslinging each other to try and gain an advantage that way. Here is a video of Adler and Runyan addressing issues they have with each other during a meeting.

At this point of the election, voters within the third district of New Jersey are uncertain of whether they want a candidate who can bring the much needed change or whether they want someone who has the experience to get things done. Adler and Runyan have turned this congressional race into a battle based solely on attacks and counterattacks. Is the mudslinging really helping any candidate gain a substantial advantage? Or are the candidates' investment in negative campaigning going to hurt them in the end? With the direction Adler and Runyan are heading in now with their negative campaign tactics, voters will need to think twice about who they ultimately want to represent them. 

Runyan closing in on Adler: Because of his politics or help from Super PACs?

Super “PACs” are campaign groups who are known for their ability to spend millions of dollars in elections, without revealing the source of their funding, in order to influence the outcome of the election and oppose those who do not agree with their beliefs or views. The non-profit American-Future Fund (AFF), one of many super PACs, is known for their numerous commercials and television ads attacking Democrats in different congressional races. With $25 million left to spend before Election Day, the AFF has chosen to intervene in the race between John Adler and Jon Runyan because of their different views on major issues such as healthcare, spending, and how to tackle the economy and the issue of unemployment.

According to an article by Cynthia Burton of the Philadelphia Inquirer,

“Corporations, unions, and other special-interest groups may now spend unlimited amounts on political ads. They can contribute to certain types of nonprofits, such as the AFF, without fear of being unmasked. Republicans in the Senate blocked a bill Thursday that would have required the disclosure of donors to independent expenditure groups.”

In terms of campaign spending, Adler has a recorded amount of money four times that of Runyan. Although the AFF has not publicly and exclusively taken Runyan’s side in the campaign, it is known that they have spent $170,000 in ads opposing Adler and they are far from finished. These ads portray Adler as “the liberal puppet of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi,” they accuse him of not being consistent with his plans for healthcare and the Obama plan.

Also, the blocked bill by the Senate ironically works in Runyan’s favor. Adler may never know who is funding the commercials or ads targeting his campaign and policies. Runyan’s campaign has not yet commented on any of the AFF’s ads against Adler, nor have they mentioned whether or not they believe donors to special interest groups or PACs should be revealed. Adler, however, has made his stance on the situation very clear. In a statement concerning the situation, Adler stated that “We cannot tolerate special interests flooding the airwaves with anonymous attack ads.” Personally, I agree with Adler. I believe that people within large campaign or interest groups, such as the AFF, who are able to greatly impact the election through their monetary involvement, should be revealed. 

In a poll taken this week, Adler finished with 42% to Runyan’s 39%, the margin of error being only plus or minus 4.9%! With a race this close, and special interest groups like the AFF getting involved, I am excited to see what each candidate brings to the table next!